Tuesday, 21 August 2007

First touch at football

After getting home, giving the little one his bath and dropping the missus off for her company night out, I had missed the last UK horse race. No way I was touching the US market, so I decided to take Stan's advice (Stan is a regular contributor, via insightful comments, to the blog) and give the football markets a look. I'm not a big watcher of football and I play like a 4 year old, so I don't know much about the game, teams or market. Then again, I don't know much about jockeys, horses or racing but that doesn't stop me trading the horse racing markets, as I am only interested in the movement of prices not the fundamentals (i.e. form, etc). So, feeling a little trepidation, especially because the football was in-play, I checked it out, using small stakes and the same kind of approach I use for the horses.

I came out with a small profit but I think these markets can turn on a hap'enny, if something happens, e.g. a goal is scored. So, I can see it as a risky market but also one that is fairly liquid and seemed to be trending quite clearly. I'm not sure what I'm going to do, moving forward. I don't dare to use bigger stakes on this market as I don't understand the risk levels yet. It may be an option though. I wasn't able to see the game I was working with, which I guess is pretty important, so as to use events happening as guides of what to do.

As a newbie to the football market, I am open to any advice.

I tell you what, I'm going to annoy the missus when I tell her that the weekends are now being totally put aside for horse race trading!


Anonymous said...

glad you made a small profit richard, after taking my advice !!! the good thing about football is there is loads of information and statistics to help us to make an informed opinion. have a look at playing the over/under 2.5 goals market. remember to make sure the games are in-play matches and then either back or lay 2.5 goals depending on whether you think the game will be high or low scoring. for instance we may think the game will be low scoring so we back the under 2.5 goals and hopefully after no goals scored within 20 mins we then lay the under 2.5 goals at a lower price and we have created ourselves a nice winning trade which we can green up if we want to. it helps if we can watch the game live on tv, we can scalp the market easier this way --- after 70 mins if a team is winning 1-0 or it is a draw we can nip in and out as we watch the game . judge the game, are the teams happy with the draw ?? has the game become a midfield stalemate or is the game very open which suggests caution. what about trading the one day cricket matches england v india plus we have the rugby world cup coming up in Sept. cheers stan.

Richard said...

Thanks for the advice. I still feel that horse racing is the best market for me, as I can work from solely the numbers and make a profit, without having to dig into the underlying form. It looks like trading the football, etc, I will need to dig into the underlying "fundamentals", i.e. get a feel for the game that is playing and how it could play out and before the start, getting to know the teams playing etc. This has been something I didn't want to get into, but if going in-play, then everything can turn on an "event", e.g. a goal, so it has a different dynamic. Are these markets always best traded in-play or do we have anything like the 10 minutes to the off type trading we have on the horses? Sorry for my ignorance, but I have, up till now, been solely a horses man.

Anonymous said...

Richard-- i get your point regarding scalping the market,this was what appealed to me initially, being able to scalp the market without having to know anything regarding the horses form etc. the WOM technique and having an understanding of how the market moved up to the start of the race seemed like an excellent way to make some profit. however ,like we have mentioned in previous posts, this is becoming much more difficult with spoof bets and the sudden spiking movement of the prices. when you play the markets this weekend, see that you think and let me know !!! in answer to your question the market rarely moves 10 mins before the start of match so it is difficult to trade. cheers stan.