Well, I'll be getting married on saturday and then on my honeymoon, so I may not get many chances to post until I get back.
So just taking this opportunity to wish you all the best with your trading.
While I'm away I'm going to have plenty of time to do some reading (11 hour flights!) and will write up any learnings that are relevant on my return.
(BTW, the picture on the left is not of my wedding cake, in case you wondered)
Wednesday, 20 June 2007
My wedding and honeymoon
Posted by Richard at 11:50 1 comments
Labels: wedding
Tuesday, 19 June 2007
Ages of the horse racing market?
Okay, call me mad if you want, but I've been caught out by the market changing direction and suddenly doing unexpected things a number of times. The weird thing is (unless I'm imagining it, which is possible), the change in "behaviour" always seem to happen around the same points.
I have been starting to think of these points in time as being similar to ages. So, what am I talking about? Well, I'm referring to backing and laying the favourite in horse racing markets.
Initially, more than 10 minutes before the off, the market is sedentary or not moving, almost like it hasn't been born yet (unborn).
At around 10 minutes to the off, the activity begins. Usually it is quite predictable, i.e. it will trend in a definite direction. It may change direction but it usually does this more gently and can be tracked. This is what I call the child age.
At around 5 minutes to the off, adolescence begins. The market may turn suddenly and unexpectedly. Big sums of money may suddenly appear and throw things into disarray.
This may calm down as the market settles (adulthood).
Around 1 minute to go, the market again can get a little random and belligerent up to the off.
Let me know what you think. Am I losing it or can you see what I mean?
Posted by Richard at 21:41 0 comments
Labels: horse racing market, market age
Monday, 18 June 2007
Umming and arring
Posted by Richard at 21:35 0 comments
Useful website
Just found another site that has some good info about Betfair, bet trading, etc. It is mainly of use to someone starting out and I reckon is mainly there to entice you to buy stuff, but information is information, so it may be worth a look.
Posted by Richard at 11:05 0 comments
Labels: bet matching, Betfair, betmatching
Sunday, 17 June 2007
The way of the turtle
One thing though, I'm about two thirds of the way through the Trading Wizards book and I remember reading about a group of traders that went under the name of the Turtle group. Basically, two top traders had a bit of a wager about whether trading success is a natural ability or can be taught. They put an advert in the paper and interviewed a number of people, selecting ones that they thought would fit in best with their trading style and system. This group were then taught and mentored and given a chunk of cash to trade with. The group as a whole got amazing returns. All of them signed confidentiality agreements and never spoke about the system, until now. I just found a book called "The Way of the Turtle", written by one of the original group, spilling the beans on what they were taught. I've only skimmed it so far but it looks good. I'll post up a review when I've read it and any pointers I find as I go along.
Posted by Richard at 22:26 0 comments
Labels: turtle group, way of the turtle
Friday, 15 June 2007
Friday trading - I need a boot in the behind!
Posted by Richard at 23:12 0 comments
Some bet exchange blogs
Posted by Richard at 17:20 0 comments
Labels: bet exchange, Betfair, blogs
Thursday, 14 June 2007
Thursday trading - still being silly but getting lucky
I got to do some Bet Fair trading today. I also got to make a couple of stupid mistakes, but get lucky.
Soros wisdom
Posted by Richard at 23:17 0 comments
Labels: george soros, successful trader, trading
Beer
Posted by Richard at 12:44 0 comments
Labels: betfair API, bollinger bands, graphing
Wednesday, 13 June 2007
Using the BetFair API
Posted by Richard at 12:44 1 comments
Labels: Betfair, betfair developer programme, bf explorer, bots
Tuesday, 12 June 2007
Ooh, Betty!
I cracked and decided I needed some more software to help me with my trading. Rather than go for Bet Angel Pro or one of the other subscription based products, I thought I'd try out one of the one off fee products I had heard good things about. I gave Bet IE Trader a go.
So, what is it like?
First of all, it has a licensing model, which involves sending an email with a code to the owner company and waiting for their reply. This isn't explained very well and seemed a bit of a strange way to go about things. Still, it worked.
In terms of the software itself, I was a little disappointed, but then again I did have very high expectations.
What I liked
I liked the weight of money graphs. These show the difference between the back and lay volumes graphically. You can easily see which way the market is pushing. This taken in addition to a graph over time gives a nice trend indication.
The ladder interface for seeing the odds and related money was very clear.
The auto hedge feature makes handling your staking easy.
The equalise button was pretty cool for greening up.
The learning mode is a clever touch, although it would be nice if it integrated in with the Betfair part of the screen (I understand why it doesn't).
What I didn't like
As a professional software developer, I am quite picky about a software package's user interface, ease of use and features. Bet IE Trader did not really impress me there and did not seem very professionally put together, windows didn't resize properly, the layout wasn't very clear.
Having half of the BetFair screen below, was not something I liked. It looked like the developers were taking a shortcut.
Overall
I'm holding my judgement until I've used it more. This was my first go with it and I'm still getting used to the ladder interface. I did accidentally make a bet I never intended, which annoyed me, but is my own fault. I'm sure it will help me improve my trading successes, which is the reason I bought it, although it does look a little amateurish.
My Plan
What I've tried doing is running Bet IE Trader and Betfair direct side by side on my two screens (I have a laptop, with its own screen and a second flat screen monitor next to it, which I extend my desktop over). This way I can see the graphs etc from Bet IE and also see the now familiar BetFair direct application.
Posted by Richard at 23:24 3 comments
Labels: Bet IE, Bet IE Trader, bet trading software, BetIE, ladder interface
Disheartened? Hmmmm....
(My son Harry, who walks,
runs and causes mischief)
It's a bit tough. I haven't been going long and already my bank is reduced to half.
The initial thought was, "screw this!" and the urge was to empty the account and never let thoughts of bet exchanges darken my door again. Then I remembered, how many things, that I had just started, was I an instant master at? Pretty much none.
I remember watching my little boy learning to walk. He spent most of the time teetering, stumbling and falling on his butt. If he had given up learning to walk, after hitting a few set backs, then then he wouldn't be running round, chasing the cats and generally causing mischief now. I want to be causing bet exchange mischief, so I need to get my head together and see what I have done wrong or just accept that I was unlucky. Some advice from the "New market Wizards" book was on looking to the long term. In the short term the market can turn against you but it's the overall position that you need to focus on. I'm going to focus on that.
I have decided that my current bank is my training bank, with the actual £100 to 100K starting after my honeymoon. That takes the pressure off and gives me a chance to determine my overall plan. One thing I am going to try, again influenced by the Market Wizards book, is to flip my mentality about trading around. I had been taking a risk when trades began to turn against me and giving them a few ticks lee-way and then panicking to get out, but as soon as I realised a small profit, I took it. In the short term this looked like it was working but short term evaluations can be misleading. i am going to try and be brave and aim to flip this around. Today I am going to bail out as soon as it looks like a loss could happen, aiming to get out even or take a tiny loss and let any profit potential ride. This may mean a number of scratch trades but the potential upside is a number of winners. Need to think about when to take profit when the opportunity arises, but that's a pleasant thing to think about.
Posted by Richard at 08:37 0 comments
Monday, 11 June 2007
Loser!
Posted by Richard at 22:22 0 comments
Sunday, 10 June 2007
Learnings from "The New Market Wizards" book
The book I'm reading at the moment is called, "The New Market Wizards: Conversations with America's Top Traders", by Jack D. Schwager. So far I'm a couple of chapters in, but I have picked up a few lessons that I'd like to share and get feedback on.
Cutting your losses
In the interview with Randy MacKay, he says, "It's not merely a matter of how much you can afford to risk on a given trade, but you also have to consider how many potential future winners you might miss because of the effect of the larger loss on your mental attitude and trading size"
Advice for other traders
Randy gives some great advice regarding staking after a loss. He says, "...never let a loser get out of hand. You want to be sure you can be wrong 20 or 30 times in a row and still have money left in your account. If I lose on a trade, no matter how strongly I feel, on my next trade I'll risk no more than about 4 percent of my account. If I lose again, I'll drop the size down to about 2%. I'll keep reducing my trading size as long as I'm losing."
He later explains that he takes the recent events (e.g. losing or winning) as another indicator for his trading. He says, "When you are trading well you have a better mental attitude. When you are trading poorly, you start wishing and hoping. Instead of getting into trades you think will work, you end up getting into trades you hope will work."
Makes sense to me.
On trading style
MacKay talks about every successful trader having a trading style that matches his personality. So, even though someone recommends a system that works for them, if you are not a "system" minded person, it would not work for you, as you would not stick to it, etc.
Posted by Richard at 22:13 0 comments
Labels: bet exchange, bet trading, Betfair, forex, futures, learnings, mackay, market wizards, options, schwager
7.37
Posted by Richard at 17:51 0 comments
Labels: bet angel basic, betfair direct, profit, strategy
Why do we act like idiots?
I remembered something I had read in a pretty cool book about persuasion and influence (something I have a fascination about), called "The Science of Influence" by Kevin Hogan (pictured below). The book asked a couple of questions that researchers Kahneman, Slovic and Tversky had posed in 1982. Have a go at them:
Situation A:
In a game you receive $1,000 (cool game!). In addition, you have a choice between a certain gain of $500 or a 50 percent chance of winning an additional £1,000 and a 50 percent chance of winning nothing.
Which do you choose?
Situation B:
In a game you receive $2,000. In addition, you have a choice between a certain loss of $500 or a 50 percent risk of losing $1,000 and a 50 percent chance of losing nothing.
Which do you choose?
Hopefully you have made your choices. If not, then re-read the above questions and note down your answers.
-- Don't read on until you have your answers --
Okay, well, basically, both situations are the same but are framed differently (i.e. same meaning but differently directed wording).
In both situations you are deciding whether you want £1,500 guaranteed or a 50 percent chance to end up with either £1,000 or £2,000.
How do most people respond?
In situation A, they found that 84 percent of people chose the certain $1,500 (first option). Only 16 percent of people were willing to gamble on the 50-50 chance of either ending on $1,000 or $2,000.
In situation B, they found that 31 percent chose the certain $1,500 (first option). A huge 69 percent were now willing to gamble of the 50-50 chance of ending up with either $1,000 or $2,000.
The situations are 100% identical yet how they are presented makes all the difference and gives us an indication on how people make decisions.
The lesson: People will lock in a sure gain in favour of any risk in the future, but they will let their losses run.
It is a lesson I hope I have learnt now and in the future can use discipline and make sure I cut my losses and live to fight another day.
Posted by Richard at 15:25 0 comments
Saturday, 9 June 2007
I'm an idiot!
Posted by Richard at 17:45 0 comments
Labels: evening races, lay, loss, steamer, wrong way
Friday, 8 June 2007
Annoying
Posted by Richard at 22:32 0 comments
Thursday nights trading adventure
Posted by Richard at 14:22 0 comments
Labels: back, horse racing, lay, uk races, volatility
UK v US evening racing
Posted by Richard at 12:52 0 comments
Thursday, 7 June 2007
Lesson #1 - Look before you leap
So, I have just been doing some small trades. My stake at the moment is £10, which is 10% of my total bank. I was playing the UK horse races, as they have a lot more liquidity to them to the US ones. This way I can engage it with plenty of time till the off (more than 15 minutes), so I don't have so much time pressure to close a trade.
Posted by Richard at 21:15 2 comments
Betfair or BetDaq?
I thought I had my first viable system to try. So I set up and account on BetDaq and transferred a few quid to set up a £50 bank. I ran Betfair and BetDaq side by side and took a position (lay) in Betfair when I thought a diving trend had bottomed out and then went to back in BetDaq which had a higher backing price and looked to yield a quickly scalped profit. Sadly not to be. Betdaq has such a lower level of liquidity than Betfair that playing one against the other proved not to be very effective with before the off (10 minutes or so) trading.
Perhaps this isn't the with some fatter races where there is a lot of money floating around but the early evening weekend races I was looking at just didn't have much luck.
Overall, I found Betfair to have not only more money floating around (and money moves the price, right) but it also has an API, so you can set up bots.
Posted by Richard at 16:23 0 comments
Labels: BetDAQ, Betfair, evening races, inter exchange trading
Betfair API
Posted by Richard at 15:31 0 comments
Labels: betfair API, bot, software
Betfair Direct
I don't know about you but my first experience with actually putting down real money on Betfair was via BetAngel Basic. This free to use piece of software offers a way to perform one click trades, rather than messing around typing in amounts and odds etc. My problem with it is was that you are limited to accepting the currently offered odds, so can't ask for a nicer price.
Posted by Richard at 14:48 0 comments
Labels: betangel, betfair direct
The initial £100 bank
I discovered bet exchanges pretty recently. My Dad, who died a couple of years ago, came across them in about 2004 and got hold of a report called something like, "How to make bets that never lose". He showed me the advert for it and I read it but racing and gambling were'nt really my thing and so I pretty much forgot about it.
About a month ago I was rooting around in the garage and I came across some of Dad's old papers and things and there amongst them was the report. Out of curiosity, I picked it up and skimmed through. Although I didn't fully get how Betfair worked from the screenshots, I picked up the idea behind backing and laying the same thing and making money on the difference in price. I took the report inside and read it cover to cover right there and then, much to the chagrin of my girlfriend, who had a list of jobs for me to do (he he!).
The report didn't give any real "how-to" details but it did introduce me to bet exchanges and the idea of trading, especially the concept of the free bet and "greening up".
The next step was to sign in to Betfair and have a look round. I did this and was pretty confused. Lots of boxes with rapidly changing numbers. Nope. I didn't have a clue and thought it was going to be a pretty steep learning curve. I was wrong.
I went on-line and a-googling. I searched for whatever I could about bet exchanges, bet exchange trading, betfair, etc. Eventually I found a couple of sites that were selling various systems. Being a bit of a newbie and with the information not costing much and having what looked like quite a lot of info and video clips, etc, I bought it.
What did I get for my money? Well, after reading through a few times, I finally understood how betfair worked and also learnt of the existance of "bots". I have a strong IT background and my instant reaction to the idea of bet exchanges was to write some code to help with it, but it looked like there were a few out there already, which was cool.
The system mentioned didn't seem to work very well on the markets I had available to test on (around 9pm-12pm UK time, USA Horse racing markets), but I was now hooked.
My plan was to try and work out my own system to use and to do this I was going to make minimal stakes of £2 per trade, whilst reading whatever I could. That was 2 weeks ago.
I slid down to about £70 and have since come back up again to about £90 and am now ready to start. So £90 is in the bank and it begins.
Posted by Richard at 11:11 0 comments
Labels: bet exchange, Betfair, bot
First Post
Hi,
My names Richard. I've got a number of diverse interests and one of those is trading on the bet exchanges. Just to give an idea of what I mean by diverse, I have worked in IT for a number of years (For those in the know or who like IT acronyms: SQL Server, .NET, AS, SSIS, XML, etc), I am an avid screenwriter and involved in putting together a short film (http://diaryofashortfilm.blogspot.com) and am also a hypnotist and NLP master practitioner.
So, basically, I am a bit strange!
The hardest part of my life is trying to find time to do anything! I am in the process of getting married (2 weeks to go) and my finance and I have two kids (Rebecca who is 8 and little Harry who is 2).
The purpose of this blog is to document my progress Bet Exchange trading, starting with a tiny bank of £100 and aiming for a chunky £100K (nice if you've got it). I plan to discuss any ideas, strategies and learnings and feedback on any developments I make in terms of software etc. I'm aiming to put together my own bit of trading software using the Betfair API, so if anyones interested, I can share details of that.
Oh yeah, I intend to focus solely on Horse racing as the market for my trading. I'm not particularly interested in horse racing per se, but it seems to be an idea to focus on a specific market and there are a lot of races every day.
Posted by Richard at 10:11 0 comments
Labels: bet exchange, bet exchanges, bet trading, Betfair, betting, horse racing, hypnosis, NLP, SQL server, trading, XML