Tuesday, 19 June 2007

Ages of the horse racing market?

Okay, call me mad if you want, but I've been caught out by the market changing direction and suddenly doing unexpected things a number of times. The weird thing is (unless I'm imagining it, which is possible), the change in "behaviour" always seem to happen around the same points.

I have been starting to think of these points in time as being similar to ages. So, what am I talking about? Well, I'm referring to backing and laying the favourite in horse racing markets.

Initially, more than 10 minutes before the off, the market is sedentary or not moving, almost like it hasn't been born yet (unborn).
At around 10 minutes to the off, the activity begins. Usually it is quite predictable, i.e. it will trend in a definite direction. It may change direction but it usually does this more gently and can be tracked. This is what I call the child age.
At around 5 minutes to the off, adolescence begins. The market may turn suddenly and unexpectedly. Big sums of money may suddenly appear and throw things into disarray.
This may calm down as the market settles (adulthood).
Around 1 minute to go, the market again can get a little random and belligerent up to the off.

Let me know what you think. Am I losing it or can you see what I mean?

No comments: