Giving money away?

I've been away for a week and havn't posted since then. during my time away I received a comment posted on the blog, which is similar to the ones that pop up every so often, along the lines of "give up, you guys are just giving money to the pros". The thing is, by the nature of bet exchanges, it is peer to peer betting. For each matched bet there is going to be a winner and a loser, it's as simple as that. Getting the skills needed to make a profit doesn't happen overnight (unless you're someone really exceptional). The only way to really learn is by doing. It's fine doing some paper trading, but the emotions are not there. You can be ice cold calm and sensible paper trading but when there is real money on the line then the emotions kick in and that's one of the factors that need to be controlled. So, if the only way to learn is by doing and as there are a number of skilled traders out there, it makes sense that there will be a period where you will take a hit. As you learn the lessons and get better and also new people join and others just throw money in without thought, you will rise up the ranks and with that your profit levels will rise too. For each of the people out there that say, "it can't be done", there are many people who are making profits. Look at fellow bloggers Mark Iverson or the Betfair Trader. They're taking profits and know what it is like to pay your dues.

An ass at Football

I thought that I had football sussed out and was going to make some consistent profits. What an arrogant tosser. Nope. I still have a lot to learn. I was trading on the Motherwell v Hearts match in the under 2.5 goals market and after looking at past stats and a bit of research, I thought there would be a couple of goals. I know too little about football to get confident here, but I was. I was too over confident to think and decide on a price to get out of the trade at. So after a few scalp trades which gave me a few ticks profit, I put on a lay, expecting a goal and the price to jump up. The price began slowly dropping and I watched as it approached my lay price. I thought, should I just get out here and re-lay at the lower price? But, no, I didn't, I just thought "any minute now, a goal will be scored and the price will jump up". It didn't. It kept dropping. I don't know why I was so convinced another goal would come in. I think I'll stop trying to predict results, or at least make sure I have an exit plan first.

7.37

After spending most of today in bed feeling ill, I managed to crawl out of bed around 2pm, after my girlfriend and the kids had gone to a birthday party. I fired up my laptop and opened up Bet Angel Basic (which I use for graphs and for the status of unmatched bets) and bet fair direct, which I use for watching the numbers and making backs/lays. I plan to get a more pro software set up, or at least trial some of the offerings out there and will post up my results.

So, with the other days losses in mind, I went in with the following strategy:

1) If a trade turns against me, get out fast

2) Make my first trade as 4 units, e.g. £20 = £5x4, then do a spread of the counter trades, e.g. if I lay at 3.0 with £20 then I might back 3.1=£10, 3.2=£5, 3.3=£5. Not sure if this is ideal, but I'm experimenting

3) Watch the market carefully, notice the rhythm as it oscillates around the various points and make sure the momentum is the correct way. If not, then get out.

This worked for me today. I carried on today with my reduced back and used either a £20 or £10 stake for my first part of a trade (mainly £10 if there was not too much of a trend, but £20 if it was more obvious).

I ended up with £7.37 in profit. Not an amazing amount, but using a bank of £56.01, it's more than a 13% profit. So I can't really complain at this point.