An ass at Football

I thought that I had football sussed out and was going to make some consistent profits. What an arrogant tosser. Nope. I still have a lot to learn. I was trading on the Motherwell v Hearts match in the under 2.5 goals market and after looking at past stats and a bit of research, I thought there would be a couple of goals. I know too little about football to get confident here, but I was. I was too over confident to think and decide on a price to get out of the trade at. So after a few scalp trades which gave me a few ticks profit, I put on a lay, expecting a goal and the price to jump up. The price began slowly dropping and I watched as it approached my lay price. I thought, should I just get out here and re-lay at the lower price? But, no, I didn't, I just thought "any minute now, a goal will be scored and the price will jump up". It didn't. It kept dropping. I don't know why I was so convinced another goal would come in. I think I'll stop trying to predict results, or at least make sure I have an exit plan first.