Monday, 10 September 2007

USA v Brazil scares

I was attempting to trade on the USA V Brazil match yesterday. I was on the edge of my seat. I wasn't watching the match, but I had my eyes glued to the computer screen. I didn't play this event in the best possible way. I was rather undisciplined and a bit random, but I was so sure it would be a Brazil walk over that I didn't consider the full risks. Anyway, I'm sure some of you will tick me off, but I'll say what I did and leave it at that.

Firstly I compared the pre-match odds in Betfair to a couple of bookies and saw that the price for backing Brazil was higher in Betfair and was rising till near the kick off. I took a back there. I expected the odds to drop within the first few minutes and I then intended to lay it off. I also thought the game would be a sure win, so I entered a lay on the draw too.

Well, all started okay, the odds for Brazil started dropping but I let it carry on dropping, planning on getting out when Brazil score. It didn't work that way, the USA went 1 - 0 up. The Brazil odds shot up and the draw odds dropped down. Oops! I managed to hedge myself with a back on the USA and then Brazil scored and then scored again, which changed the odds and I was able to lock in a trade on the draw part. Because I had took a loss earlier with the USA goal, I had cut my profit potential right down and I was okay, as long as it wasn't a draw. Then just near the end, the USA equalised. This was my worst case scenario and would result with me coming out with a loss. The instant before I got out of the loss, Brazil got another one in and everything was okay. So, I got less than a fivers profit but the way things jumped around really showed me how much I have got to learn with football.

I managed to have a go on the horses prior to the football, but I got caught out with a big turn around which wiped out the profit I had built with several trades. Really annoying.


Anonymous said...

I hope this doesn't sound too cheeky, but you don't seem to have any kind of edge when you're trading or betting on football?

"I was so sure Brazil would win" - but did you have more information than everyone else that led to you believe Brazil were more likely to win than the current price suggested?

Sounds like horses are your forte, so why not just stick to them?

Richard said...

A perfectly valid comment. I'm new to football and it looks like you're right, I don't seem to have much of an edge here. I was comparing the betfair prices to the bookie prices and saw that betfair prices for brazil to win were longer. Not ideal to base a plan on. I am back to basics again here.
Given the choice I'd stick to horses but unfortunately the racing during the week finishes before I am able to trade, so I need another market during the week. Football looked like a possible contender. I'm not giving up, but need to learn more.