My wedding and honeymoon

Well, I'll be getting married on saturday and then on my honeymoon, so I may not get many chances to post until I get back.

So just taking this opportunity to wish you all the best with your trading.


While I'm away I'm going to have plenty of time to do some reading (11 hour flights!) and will write up any learnings that are relevant on my return.

(BTW, the picture on the left is not of my wedding cake, in case you wondered)

Ages of the horse racing market?

Okay, call me mad if you want, but I've been caught out by the market changing direction and suddenly doing unexpected things a number of times. The weird thing is (unless I'm imagining it, which is possible), the change in "behaviour" always seem to happen around the same points.

I have been starting to think of these points in time as being similar to ages. So, what am I talking about? Well, I'm referring to backing and laying the favourite in horse racing markets.

Initially, more than 10 minutes before the off, the market is sedentary or not moving, almost like it hasn't been born yet (unborn).
At around 10 minutes to the off, the activity begins. Usually it is quite predictable, i.e. it will trend in a definite direction. It may change direction but it usually does this more gently and can be tracked. This is what I call the child age.
At around 5 minutes to the off, adolescence begins. The market may turn suddenly and unexpectedly. Big sums of money may suddenly appear and throw things into disarray.
This may calm down as the market settles (adulthood).
Around 1 minute to go, the market again can get a little random and belligerent up to the off.


Let me know what you think. Am I losing it or can you see what I mean?

Umming and arring

I keep getting my fingers burnt by getting into trades too late, just when the market is about to turn. I see an opportunity, where it looks like there is a trend up or down. I watch it until I think it is a definite trend and then enter a trade but I leave it too long before I get in. Perhaps I need to just get in quick and be ready to get out again if I am wrong, rather than hang around umming and arring. I'll give that a try. It will mean lots of in/out scratch (hopefully) trades buy will also mean that I should get in on the movement.

Useful website

Just found another site that has some good info about Betfair, bet trading, etc. It is mainly of use to someone starting out and I reckon is mainly there to entice you to buy stuff, but information is information, so it may be worth a look.

Click here to have a look (BTW, I have no involvement, relationship or anything with this site, just thought it had some useful stuff on it)

The way of the turtle

No trading this weekend, appart from a quick go with £2 stakes (came out 10p up, wow!). My wedding is in less than a week, on 23rd June. We've still got a fair bit to sort out, so not sure if I'll get much chance to post or trade this week. Please feel free to drop me a comment about yourself or any trading thoughts you have.
One thing though, I'm about two thirds of the way through the Trading Wizards book and I remember reading about a group of traders that went under the name of the Turtle group. Basically, two top traders had a bit of a wager about whether trading success is a natural ability or can be taught. They put an advert in the paper and interviewed a number of people, selecting ones that they thought would fit in best with their trading style and system. This group were then taught and mentored and given a chunk of cash to trade with. The group as a whole got amazing returns. All of them signed confidentiality agreements and never spoke about the system, until now. I just found a book called "The Way of the Turtle", written by one of the original group, spilling the beans on what they were taught. I've only skimmed it so far but it looks good. I'll post up a review when I've read it and any pointers I find as I go along.

Friday trading - I need a boot in the behind!

I keep doing it. I go through a few events and green up and am in profit, then I make a bad call and the market turns against me and I let my loss run on the chance that it'll turn back again. It never does. I then have to choose whether to take a definite loss or risk letting it run. Yesterday I got myself into this position and let it run and got lucky, today I foolishly did the same and didn't. I need a good kick in the behind! Never again. I promise!

Some bet exchange blogs

During my scouring of the internet to find relevant and useful bet trading info I came across a couple of blogs that I thought I should share. They are:

Mark Iverson's blog

Mark is a horse backer turned trader. His philosophy is pretty cool and he has some good posts.

The Betfair Trader blog

This is the guy who is trying to pay for his wedding using Betfair profits. He is doing pretty damned well too. Go and have a look.