Money down the toilet (but only £2)

I got back from work late today, as I had a lot on, which meant that I missed all the horse racing and the majority of the football. On football, I like to be there from the beginning, but no chance here, I only had the closing minutes, so I didn't bother. I wish I had had a go now, as I got a bit annoyed that there was nothing for me to trade on and had a root through the Grey hounds (nothing) and the US Horse Racing market, where I put a back on for a couple of quid. I used low stakes, just in case the market closed on me before the clock had ticked down, like it did before. Yep, before my lay was matched (illiquid market) and still with 3 minutes left on the clock, the market suspended. Another couple of quid down the toilet. A bit silly, but I just wanted to put a trade on, I didn't really care if I didn't close it. Perhaps I'm working too hard!

Using the information

When using trading software, you get a lot of potential information coming at you pretty quickly. One reason I think charts are good, is that they let you see some of that info in a picture form, that you can take in quickly. When I started to trade on horse racing, I never used to take into account anything other than the price and volume of the horse I was working with (usually the favourite). Recently I have become more interested in the relative prices between the favourite and the 2nd and 3rd favourites (if there are any) and the rest of the field. Is this something that most of you guys do? I must admit, I'm not doing any deep analysis, just yet, but I think that there may be some indicators to take account of. May be not indicators of short term price change but may be of longer term (I'm still talking last 10 minutes before the off, so by longer term I mean a few minutes rather than a few seconds) changes, e.g. price direction reversal. Just a few thoughts. Be interested to hear if any of you guys use this sort of information much.

Something else that has been on my mind is a comment that Stan left on the blog recently. He spoke about how trading/scalping on the exchanges is getting tougher and that the markets have been behaving strangely. Anyone else got any thoughts around this?

Last bite

One thing that has caught me out several times which I have finally noticed is the switch in market direction that tends to happen in the last minute or two before the off, when trading on a horse race.

There could be an easy to follow trend from over 10 minutes out, but in those last couple of minutes it nearly always swings the other direction. Now I've noticed this, I can use it. Too many times, I've built up several good trades throughout a race and then been stung right at the end. I now trade up to the last couple of minutes and then when (if) the market swings the other way, I am ready to ride the wave. Anyone else noticed this, or am I giving too much weight to the last few races I traded? Anyway, this technique has helped me avoid getting bitten during the last few trades.

Ages of the horse racing market?

Okay, call me mad if you want, but I've been caught out by the market changing direction and suddenly doing unexpected things a number of times. The weird thing is (unless I'm imagining it, which is possible), the change in "behaviour" always seem to happen around the same points.

I have been starting to think of these points in time as being similar to ages. So, what am I talking about? Well, I'm referring to backing and laying the favourite in horse racing markets.

Initially, more than 10 minutes before the off, the market is sedentary or not moving, almost like it hasn't been born yet (unborn).
At around 10 minutes to the off, the activity begins. Usually it is quite predictable, i.e. it will trend in a definite direction. It may change direction but it usually does this more gently and can be tracked. This is what I call the child age.
At around 5 minutes to the off, adolescence begins. The market may turn suddenly and unexpectedly. Big sums of money may suddenly appear and throw things into disarray.
This may calm down as the market settles (adulthood).
Around 1 minute to go, the market again can get a little random and belligerent up to the off.


Let me know what you think. Am I losing it or can you see what I mean?